Chains of Coincidences

By: 
Kort E Patterson

The American submarine Nautilus was on patrol off Midway Island when it encountered a number of Japanese warships. After launching an unsuccessful torpedo attack, the Nautilus submerged and was subjected to a depth charge attack by a single Japanese destroyer. Delayed by its unsuccessful depth-charge attack on the Nautilus, the Japanese destroyer eventually broke off and headed north at high speed to join the main fleet.

At that point, a flight of American dive-bombers that had gotten separated from the rest of their formation, and were independently following the hunches of its leader in hopes of finding something to bomb, spotted the Japanese destroyer. Reasoning that a destroyer in such a hurry must be headed toward bigger targets, the American dive-bombers followed the destroyer instead of attacking it.

The Japanese had just discovered the presence of the American fleet, and the decks of their carriers were covered with weapons and fuel as they prepared to attack the American ships. If they'd managed to finish their changeover and launch an attack on the American fleet, the outcome of the battle could have been grim for the Allies in the Pacific.

At that moment, a squadron of American torpedo bombers that had gotten separated from the dive-bombers and fighters with which they were planning make a combined attack, decided to attack by themselves. Their sacrifice failed to cause any damage to the Japanese fleet, and only one crewman out of the entire flight of torpedo bombers survived the battle.

However, the destruction of the squadron of American torpedo bombers pulled the Japanese fleet defense fighters down out of position, opening a window of opportunity at just the moment when, almost at the limit of their range, the American dive bombers following the Japanese destroyer that had been delayed depth-charging the American submarine, found the main Japanese fleet.

In less than 5 minutes, the unopposed dive bombers changed the course of the war in the Pacific by sinking all but one of the Japanese carriers.

The submarine and torpedo bomber attacks failed to achieve their primary objectives. When considered in isolation, they might appear to have been only tragic wasted efforts. But unknown to the participants at the time, their apparent failures set in motion a chain of coincidences that profoundly changed the course of the war.